The Statistical Case For Selecting Alabama To Be In The College Football Playoffs
The regular college football season is over. We now move to conference championship games and from there the four-team playoffs and bowl games. Since the four-team playoff system to determine the national champion was started in 2014, Alabama has been one of the four teams in seven out of the eight years. While Alabama’s regular season record this year is just 10–2, tied with its worst record during the playoff era, a detailed analysis of this season underscores that they still deserve to be selected to be in the playoffs.
Let me preface my analysis by disclosing that I’m an unabashed fan of the Crimson Tide, having been born in Alabama and made that early threshold decision — as all natives must — that my football colors ran crimson and white rather than the blue and orange of Iron Bowl rival Auburn. That preference would stay with me even as I attended LSU, although for obvious reasons it would remain a private loyalty that I didn’t volunteer to my fraternity brothers and classmates. As I moved into adulthood my allegiance to college football as the most exciting spectator sport and devotion to Alabama’s team has only grown. Indeed, living in the north of our country for almost five decades now, I suspect that distance and fond memories have turned me into even more of a Crimson Tide fan than I otherwise would have been. In January of this year shortly after Alabama lost to Georgia in the last national championship game, I wrote an article entitled “The Statistical Case For Nick Saban Being The Greatest Coach Of All Time”. That article can be accessed here. With my bias on the table, I’ll now proceed to make the case that the math shows that Alabama most definitely deserves to be in the playoffs this year.
It is clear that a college football teams won-loss record remains a key statistic. It is therefore not surprising that the teams that are undefeated in the regular season are at the top of all the polls. But the playoff rankings, which only start midway through the regular season, were designed to select the four best teams to compete in the post-season playoffs. As such, there is a broader range of information that should be taken into account to meet the overriding goal of having the best teams in the country competing in a systematic playoff of who is the best of the best. In addition to the won-loss record, factual data such as total points scored versus points given up, the ratio of those two and the strength of schedule in terms of opponents are all quantifiable statistics, just like the won-loss record is. While they all tend to broadly correlate in some way with won-loss records, they augment and in many ways present a more refined measure of that key statistic. When selecting teams for a playoff, it is imperative that this broader range of information be considered. The playoff poll is by definition different from the other polls and variances in its rankings should be embraced.
Prior to getting to an analytical exercise that indicates Alabama should now be ranked #4 by the playoff committee when all the metrics above are considered, let’s first address the two losses Alabama had in the regular season as they deserve footnotes. Both games were lost by a total of 4 points literally in plays in the last seconds of each game. Absent those seconds, the excruciatingly narrow losses would have been avoided and an undefeated Alabama team would undoubtedly be standing in the top spot of the polls.
Allow me to go into more detail on those two away games to underscore that those losses both merit large asterisks. In the Tennessee game, with the score tied 49–49, Tennessee with 2 seconds left made a field goal to win 52–49. Alabama had more total yards and its offense had two-thirds more time of possession at 37.29 versus 22.31. The LSU game was tied and went into overtime, with Alabama scoring a touchdown and going ahead 31–24. While LSU responded with a touchdown, controversial officiating made it possible. LSU then elected to go for a 2-point conversion that was successful, immediately winning the game 32–31 in overtime. Alabama had 27% more total yards than LSU, led by Bryce Young’s passing. The ear-splitting noise from 102,321 at Tiger Stadium, the original Death Valley, genuinely resulted in a home field advantage for LSU to which I can personally attest.
With that as my preamble, let’s go to the actual numbers that show that the Crimson Tide merit being in the top four with all the known facts. The following table lists the top ten teams as the playoff committee ranked them on November 22 after eleven games had been played. While we know the outcomes of the twelfth game played by all this past weekend, the committee won’t come out with its revised ranking until 7:00PM on November 29. We will use the current November 22 listing and the specific analytical metrics that result from the first eleven games to develop an adjusted ranking. When the new playoff committee ranking is released tomorrow night, we will update our analysis using this same framework. We expect it will make the same or an even stronger case for Alabama being selected. The table below shows the won-loss record, total points scored and against, the resulting cumulative differences and difference per game, the ratio of total points scored and against and the strength of schedule (SOS) factor. SOS is a statistical factor taking into account your opponents record as well as the record of your opponents opponents. Those factors are updated following each week’s games and the table utilizes the SOS product issued by TeamRankings.com. The SOS factor presently shows Alabama ranked #1 among all 131 FBS division, meaning that from a statistical evaluation of its opponents, it has the most difficult schedule in all of college football.
As you can see in the table, each of four different metrics are ranked. The average such ranking, giving equal weight to each, is then used to come up with an adjusted new ranking. In that exercise involving a reasonable set of fact based and quantifiable metrics, Alabama moves from #7 in the latest college playoff ranking to #4 in this broader statistical assessment. That is driven by its relative performance in cumulative points on the board, which are made more impressive by its extraordinary SOS. When different weights are applied to the various factual metrics, other rankings can be developed that generally tend to reinforce the analytical basis for including the Crimson Tide.
From games this past weekend, two teams ahead of Alabama lost. LSU will certainly fall beneath Alabama in the rankings the committee releases tomorrow night. Ohio State will likely fall out of the top four, but the real question is whether it shows up at #5 or #6. If the latter, that will have Alabama at #5. That is a distinction with a difference as it will play large in terms of whether Alabama actually makes it into the playoffs that will be decided after next weekends conference championship games.
In an ideal college football world where rankings are determined based on the actual statistics achieved on the field, I think Alabama is already #4. Indeed, if I were on the committee and making the final selection based on all the facts as they are known today, I would pick Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama in that order. But two SEC and two Big 10 teams along with the related rematches that brings probably doesn’t fit with a slight regional bias that exists in all the polls, including the one issued by the playoff committee. One polls regional bias will flow to others, particularly the one that is issued last.
On the issue of whether Ohio State should be #5 or #6 in tomorrow night’s poll, the fact that it had an end of season 21 point loss on its home field argues strongly for putting them at #6. With Ohio State an 8 point favorite in a game at home against their arch rival, that is a blowout loss and one that some will say should preclude any possibility of a rematch in the playoffs. The point loss by Ohio State was more than five times the total amount of points Alabama lost two games in the last few seconds. That fact and the large asterisk that those Alabama games involve should play large in having the playoff committee rank the Crimson Tide no lower than #5 in the poll that will come out tomorrow night.
That poll will I suspect include TCU and USC in the #3 and #4 spots. The factual data in my view doesn’t support those positions. While TCU is undefeated, its cumulative scoring difference both absolutely and relatively is unimpressive. That occurred despite facing opponents weaker than those of most ranked teams. USC was almost as lackluster with regard to its cumulative scoring differences. In addition, USC has an even weaker opponent schedule with a SOS factor well below the other ranked teams. In my adjusted ranking in the table above, TCU and USC drop two and three spots compared to the latest playoff poll based on their relative weakness in cumulative scoring and strength of schedule. While the objective data doesn’t really presently support either of those teams being in the top four, they benefit from the slight regional bias referenced earlier.
As noted earlier, I strongly believe that the actual data supports Alabama already being ranked #4 but I see almost no possibility of that occurring in the Tuesday playoff poll. Just as the New York Yankees dominance over different periods engendered an anti-Yankee feeling among some, I suspect the extraordinary record of Alabama during the Saban era has engendered something similar. The delight in denting a dynasty was seen this year when Tennessee and LSU fans stormed the field following their hair splitting wins. Both schools were assessed significant fines for the unruly and dangerous behavior of their fans at the end of those games.
While what should happen won’t happen, if Alabama is ranked #5 tomorrow night, that preserves a path for it to still make the playoffs if either TCU or USC lose their conference championship game. While either losing should then make Alabama a shoo in, even an underwhelming performance keeps the door open.
Alabama in the final four gives America the type of playoff game or games that it deserves, with players and a coaching staff at an unrivalled talent level. It’s likely that two Alabama players will be among the first five picks in the upcoming NFL draft and they will be joined by more than a few teammates in the overall draft. Nowhere is that talent more obvious than in quarterback Bryce Young. Alabama has an unmatched legacy at the QB position, with Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Ken Stabler and more recently Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa among its alumni along with more than another half dozen who played in the NFL. But to watch Bryce Young play the college QB position comes at times as close to perfection as you think is possible. As a dual threat quarterback, both his legs and arm display a mastery of the way the position should be played. Countless times his agility and awareness of his receivers downfield, along with an amazing passing ability allowing accurate throws even from unbalanced positions, leaves one desperately waiting for the replay to see again how he accomplished his latest remarkable feat. Throughout his extraordinary performances, Bryce Young has a zen-like calmness as his sole focus is on moving the ball down the field. Indeed, it is that ability to center on what matters in the moment that makes Bryce Young so effective under pressure. To watch him lead with minutes to spare a needed scoring drive down much of the field, with most of the yards coming from his running and passing, is simply college football poetry.
On any given Saturday, America would enjoy watching an amazingly talented team decked out in their classic crimson uniforms demonstrating how college football can be played at its best. It seems to me that alternative should be preferred compared to the possibility of watching a bunch of horned frogs hopping around in weird uniforms. Let’s hope the playoff committee does the right thing and that it’s ranking tomorrow night still lives a path to the Crimson Tide being in the playoffs. The objective facts and data clearly point to Alabama being one of the four best college football teams in the country. If selected, they will give America an elephant of a game (probably two) to watch and enjoy.
Jock McCown is a native of Alabama who now lives in Pound Ridge, an hour north of New York City. He is a recognized expert on container shipping and maritime commerce. When not engaged in matters related to his vocational field, as a biking enthusiast he will frequently be practicing his favorite transport avocation in the bucolic area of northern Westchester County.
